Thursday, April 7, 2011

White Sox: Overs and Unders

Baseball is here, baby! Finally, the game we all know and love will be played by the best ball-players the universe knows. We'll watch our favorite teams and players closely. The nice part is we don't have to just look at the morning paper's boxscores...there's MLB-TV with live look-ins to every game and MLB.com, Baseball Tonight, fangraphs.com, (not to mention Bob Ball Blog), etc, etc, etc. With that said, let's have a little fun while there's still hope for success and before the analysis involves pitch-recognition, release-points, bullpen-juggling, bunt-coverage, wheel-plays, and not to mention statistics and sabermetrics such as VORP, WAR, UZR, BABIP, and xFIP.

Let's just do some quick over/under predictions...

Adam "Big Donkey" Dunn will hit 40 HR. OVER. With his home ballpark, I'm thinking 44.

Dunn will have over 200 K's. UNDER. I'm going with the trend here. He's never had 200 K's in one season (even though he had 199 last year). I know he's hitting on the AL this season, but he should see better pitches with Konerko protecting him.

Captain Paul Konerko will hit 30 HR. OVER. It'll be hard to duplicate last years numbers, especially his 39 HR, but I still think he's capable of hitting 32 HR in 2011.

Carlos Quentin will hit 30 HR. OVER. Barring atrition, an important disclaimer for every team and player, especially for the injury-plagued career of TCQ, he's capable of 35 HR.

Carlos Quentin will visit the Disabled List twice. UNDER. He'll almost undoubtedly land on the DL once and maybe even twice, but I think he's got his head on straight with the new sports psychologist in the locker room this season to prevent him from any self-inflicting injuries and reaching the DL thrice.

Gordon Beckham will hit 20 HR. OVER. He only hit 9 in 2010, but his ground-ball percentage increased and his flyball-ball rate decreased. I'm thinking those numbers will reciprocate and he'll reach somewhere around 22 HR.

Juan Pierre will have 65 steals. UNDER. Barely. He has 70 steal potential as shown with his 68 last year, but the Sox have enough power to get it done offensively to not need to play as much NL style "small-ball" that Ozzie likes so much that he should just marry it. I've said it before and I'll say it again...stop saying "Ozzie-ball"! I LOVE Ozzie, but he is in no way a "small-ball" pioneer.

Mark Buehrle will throw 200 innings. OVER. He's been an inning-eating machine the past 10 years. It's a contract year that could very well be his last year on the hill. At the risk of putting on the kabash, 200 IP is a lock!

Tune in to the Chicago Sports Fix radio show with Josh Catlow and me Rob Zielinski this and every Friday from 6 to 8pm only on chicagolandsportsradio.com. Share your thoughts by calling us at 312.884.8205 or email chicagosportsfix@gmail.com

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