Thursday, June 30, 2011

Quality Starts On Both Sides of Town

A starting pitcher qualifies for a quality start if he throws at least six innings-pitched and allows three earned-runs or less. Statistically, if a team's starting pitcher throws a quality start, said team has a 70% chance of winning that particular game. We know that a 4.50 earned-run average, is, well, average, at best. But stats are facts and facts are facts. Got all that?

Now, the Cubs, well they rank 30th in the league for total number of quality starts with 30. Probably a big reason why they're eight games behind the Pittsburg Pirates (yes, you read that correctly) and eleven games behind the NL Central Division leading Milwaukee Brewers. But Chairman Tom Ricketts will just tell you that it's injuries holding the team back and say that he has 100% confidence in his General Manager and Manager instead of holding people accountable. But I digress.

Just for funsies: the Cubs also rank 30th in ERA at 4.69, 30th in WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) at 1.49, and 29th in BAA (batting average against) at a .271 clip.

The White Sox rank considerably better at 8th in the MLB with 48 QS (quality starts). Pretty good, right? It is, but only if you're looking strictly at that number. The underlying fact is that the White Sox's record for those 48 games is 28-20 (a winning percentage of .583). And again, at first glace that doesn't seem too bad, I mean, it's eight games over .500 so it has to be pretty good.

But here's a little perspective. The Boston Red Sox rank 25th in the MLB in QS with 40; however, they're winning over 77% of those games. That's 31 winners for those of you keeping score at home (three wins more than the White Sox who have eight more quality starts). It also helps that the Red Sox own a +85 run differential, whereas the White Sox possess a -5 run differential (you can't win if you can't score folks). Needless to say, the Red Sox capitalize on most games in which they have a 70% chance of winning and it's a huge reason why they're 11 games over .500.

Something the Sox of White should start to take advantage of, yes?

As always, tune in to the Chicago Sports Fix radio show this and every Friday evening from 6 to 8pm with me Rob Zielinski and Josh Catlow only on chicagolandsportsradio.com. Give us a call during show hours at 312.884.8205 or email chicagosportsfix@gmail.com to share your thoughts.

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