Thursday, February 10, 2011

From ChampionSHIP to Sinking SHIP

The Blackhawks have lost 4 of their last 6. They have some time. The operative word being some. There's only 28 games left. As it stands now, they're 11th in the Western Conference. A mere three points separates them from being in 8th, the last slot to make the postseason. There are seven teams vying for the last four spots to make the playoffs and all are within five points of eachother. My favorite Hawks player Hossa hasn't showed up in a few weeks, along with a few of his teammates like Kopecky, Kane and Sharp whom finally made their appearances Wednesday as Shaprie put the biscuit in the basket and Kaner potted two himself. Pretty much the entire second line has been non-existent the past three weeks.

The Blackhawks have been bad. So bad that Coach Q decided to have a 45 minute bag-practice the day after their loss to Calgary. (Bag-practice is actually more like a bag-less practice in which the bags of pucks are left in the locker room as the team will only be skating at top speed the entire practice and will be looking for bags to puke in).This probably came as part punishment for their poor effort as well as a reminder of the type of perseverance and grit it takes to win each and every game.

The defense has been absent. They can't keep the puck out of their own net. Nobody crashes the net on power plays. Nobody stands in front of the net to screen the goalie or punch in rebounds for ugly goals. The impact of the roster turnover due to the hard cap was severely underestimated.  There's no edge, no chemistry, no sense of urgency or execution. The depth of this team is in no way comparable to last year's. I'm not blaming them, but I'm not much impressed with the young guys like Dowell, Pisani, Stalberg, and Skille....O, Wait....He Gone.

The point is the Hawks have some points to win after their 30 game hangover at the beginning of the season and the points they've let slip away these past few weeks. It's either that or drown in the Sea of Mediocrity.


Tape and Pine Tar:

The Beta PECOTA (PECOTA, a backronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance, according to a definition listed on wikipedia.com) results were posted and then swiftly taken down for some unknown reason, but I was lucky enough to jot down some notes...

The White Sox are projected to lead the MLB with 841 total runs scored and Team Slugging at .412. Yet they're projected to place second in the Central Division with 89 wins behind the Twins with 95 wins.

The Cubs are projected to go 70-92 and place only ahead of, you guessed it, the Pirates.

Keep in mind that these are only the first results, and they may have been leaked. Baseball Prospectus has the right to make any data adjustments that they deem necessary before publishing results.

Last year was PECOTA's most accurate year ever with 26 teams coming within two games of their projected winning results.


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PREACH

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